Clearly there are many complexities to predicting a Flash future. On the surface the arguments forwarded by Apple about Flash identify the fact that Flash technology is not based on a ‘standard’ as defined by the W3C. There are perplexities entangling this argument though. Who is involved in constituting a ‘standard’? The most important players are, of course, those who operate the browsers. After all, without browser support, the many languages of the web won’t be understood. Flash is based on an object-oriented language - ActionScript. However ActionScript is not a standard as recognized by the W3C. Despite the ubiquitous presence of Flash in the web space for years, its language has not entered into the standards arena. Has Adobe been remiss in not making its scripting languages form a standard? Was Adobe happy to not have to make their software completely standards compliant so as to protect its scripting formula and ward off competition? Whatever the reasons, there is certainly a social pressure building for Adobe to move towards complying with its standards.
Leaving the issue of whether to standardize or not standardize to the side, there is another, much larger factor to consider. There is an entire industry built around Flash professionals. From designers to coders, consideration must be given to the employment projections within the Flash industry. Rather than convergence perhaps the result of this drama will be that more platforms will exist – each purposed with supporting specialized software.
Perhaps… perhaps not….
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